The only presidential poll that matters is the one on Election Day, all the rest are mere pieces of entertainment at best and propaganda at worse. On election day the voters will put an end to this seemingly endless campaign.
I don’t see much point in speculating about who’s ahead at any given time or who “won the debate”. I don’t see any reason to parse every utterance of the two clowns running for office. And yes, the next president will be either Barack Obama or Mitt Romney. No third party has a chance even if the two main candidates are caught on live TV together in bed with a dead girl and a live sheep. If you wish to cast a protest vote on one of the third party candidates, go ahead, but the man who will affect your life during the next four years will be either Obama or Romney.
All we really know about the future of the next few years is that the overseas wars will continue, the nation will continue to spend money like it was just scraps of paper, people will be caged in large numbers for smoking a weed, and the people will be ever poorer day by day. The one elected in November does not matter much; the system is off the rails and we are all in deep trouble.
One caution about politicians: the devil is not only in the details, but in the definitions. Politicians are experts at saying things without defining their terms. For example, “reasonable gun control” depends entirely on what you define as “reasonable”. The mayor of NYC thinks a total ban is “reasonable” while I think no law banning guns at all is reasonable. (and constitutional)
I will not vote as is my normal habit unless a really good protest candidate is on the ballot. My wife says she will give the libertarians a vote this time since she likes to vote. We all must do what we think will make the situation better — unfortunately there are not a lot of good choices out there.